Karl Rove's October Surprise

[TVB]

I've been saying this for months...October they suddenly find Osama (thought they'd probably like to have Obama too). In fact, I'm sure I've even mentioned it here as well.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040904/D84T2OUO0.html

Betsy

[Andilinks]

If they capture Bin Laden they deserve the credit. If in fact they planned to do this in October as an election stunt, and actually manage to pull it off without bumbling the conspiracy plans, I want these guys working for me, they're good, very good.

But in reality I don't think they're quite that good. They may be that lucky though.

By the way, I'm pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and pro-environment and if it weren't for Bin Laden and the Islamist movement I would already have decided to vote for Kerry.

Andi

[MichaelC]

Originally posted by Andilinks:
If they capture Bin Laden they deserve the credit.

For what? Bungling their troop allocations (primarily by saving most of them for Iraq) and intelligence (revealing undercover informants to take heat off themselves for an "orange alert") so it took so long?

Not that capturing Bin Laden will stop terrorism one bit - if anything, it will probably make it worse.

MC

[Andilinks]

Yes Michael, you should be running things.

[Evoir]

I bet they've had him for a while now and are saving it for the election. I agree that terrorism will probably increase... nothing like a martyr for the people....

[TVB]

I bet they've had him for a while now and are saving it for the election.

That's my suspicion as well. I found the timing of the article I posted a bit suspect, particularly given the low-level diplomat it is attributed to.

Betsy

[Stephen]

I bet they've had him for a while now and are saving it for the election.

oh geez. don't be ridiculous. even if somebody at the top thought a thing that insane would be worth carrying out, it would never propagate all the way to the bottom without somebody alerting the press. that's exactly the kind of thing (if it COULD be done) that would get a president tossed out of office.

osama hasn't been caught because (a) he hasn't been the highest priority, and (b) even if he was, it just takes time to track someone down who isn't afraid to hide out in the most remote of places.

[MichaelC]

Originally posted by Stephen:
oh geez. don't be ridiculous. even if somebody at the top thought a thing that insane would be worth carrying out, it would never propagate all the way to the bottom without somebody alerting the press. that's exactly the kind of thing (if it COULD be done) that would get a president tossed out of office.

The Reagan/Bush Sr. administration did much worse (selling arms to sworn enemies? Hello?), and seems to me not much came of it.

The key is to make sure there's no traceable path directly to the White House. Even Rove himself could easily take the fall (he'd have already got Bush in for term 2, and thanks to the magic of the presidential pardon, no jail time required) and then be handsomely compensated from a future job with, say, Halliburton, or exploiting his "hero" status among conservatives with a weekly Fox News show.

Not saying that's what's gonna happen - just that in today's politics it very well could.

MC

[Andilinks]

The capture of Bin Laden would send Bush's approval rating soaring no matter when it happened and would be the proverbial "bird in the hand" against a deferred capture which would be a gamble that could blow up in their faces.

However, such a capture could be kept quiet for legitimate intelligence reasons while they rounded up other al qaida members who were not yet aware of the UBL capture. I would see that as a much more likely scenario, if the word did get out intelligence and national security would provide a cover. If it coincidentally helped Bush's reelection at a more critical time, well sometimes that's just how things happen. I don't see it as any evil conspiracy though.

Andi