Frances

[Deb]

History shows that September storms passing within 100 miles of Ivan's current location have never hit Florida. The storms either turned northward toward the East Coast of the United States or continued on a more westerly path and entered the Gulf of Mexico.

Here's the "within 500 miles of Ivan" history...



Odd how many of them did NOT make it to the gulf side...yet Ivan is anticapated to head to the gulf side (watch out Monty!)

Right now he looks like Charley to me but that's likely because two in a row makes a person nervous lol.



IF Ivan were to hit central Florida it would create a unique pattern of Every Third Storm of this season hitting Central FL
(Alex and Bonnie miss... Charley Hit -- Danielle and Earl miss... Frances Hit -- Gaston and Hermine miss... Ivan <drum roll please...>

Whichever way he decides to go we'll be ready for him.

Another note is that hurricanes in the Atlantic do not spit off as many tornados as hurricanes in the gulf... Either way Ivan looks like he may give us some rain so I think I'll go buy myself and the turtles some brand new umbrellas

Deb
- And no...none of them blew out of their shells this weekend

[dan]

Glad to here everyone is OK!

Saw this just now and thought is was interesting.

Hurricane Frances wind and rain for sell on eBay.

[Randall]

Monty's model is leaning toward the northerly route, but everyone else seems to be betting on the Caribbean.

Randall

[Mandi]

That is my kind of hurricane - squeezes itself thoughtfully between two islands, and then goes back out to sea (Monty's wind vector model.)

[Andilinks]

This is an odd bit of speculation, though not good news for Florida, if true.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog...ID=1549&trk=nl

Andi

[Monty]

here's one more from the weather guessers

[Deb]

It could happen

Deb
- Someone who keeps seeking proof that these hurricanes just don't come to Central FL

[Monty]

Yea, today is sorta a glum day in these parts. The damage from that storm made the front page this morning on the local paper. However, a very early, fairly strong cold front passed here last night, and we have a very large dome of high pressure sitting on top of Texas that is supposed to be staying with us for over a week.

I suspect the differences in the forecast tracks in the various models are in part to how this high is expected to more and influence the storm. If it does pop Florida again this time, I am not sure how folks there will hold up. In '83 we got hit by Alicia which had high winds that tore off roofs, and tore up buildings. There wasn't a leaf on a tree anywhere around here. A month later, Claudette dumped 3 feet of rain on us and it took several years for us to completely recover. I remember working in my a/c business for over 45 days straight, 14 hours a day trying my best to keep everyone cool. We crawled through windows, because doors were swollen shut after the 2nd go round. I wouldn't wish that mess on anyone and a 3rd time is hard to imagine.